The Classic Model of Demographic Transition

Reverend Thomas Malthus
Reverend Thomas Malthus

The model of demographic transition proposed in the 1940s describes the stages in the relationship between birth and death rates and the overall population change. The growth in the population due to changes in the birth and death rates is called the natural rate of population growth. The model of demographic transition suggested that a population's mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social and economic development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through four demographic transition stages. However with all models it has its limitations and the model has been developed to consider the demographic changes that many LDCs are experiencing.


The four stages of demographic transition in Western Europe

The tables below summarise the factors affecting birth rates and death rates in each stage

Stage 1 : Pre industrialisation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth
High Birth rates High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates
No or little Family Planning

Parents have many children because few survive

Many children are needed to work the land

Children are a sign of virility

Some religious beliefs and cultural traditions encourage large families
As stage 1 Family Planning utilised , contraceptives, abortions, sterilisation and other government incentives

A lower infant mortality rates means less pressure to have children

Increased mechanisation and industrialisation means less need for labour

Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families

Emancipation of women
High Death Rates Falling Death Rates Death rates Low Death rates Low
Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera, kwashiorkor)

Famine , uncertain food supplies and poor diet

Poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage disposal
Improved medical care e.g. vaccinations , hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions

Improved sanitation and waters supply

Improvements in food production in terms of quality and quantity

Improved transport to move food and doctors

A decrease in child mortality
As stage 2

The model predicts that eventually industrialised countries will have low stable population growth.